I wanted to open the closing chapter of this optimistic and not horribly scientific preview with a look at the recent goings on at the Biomechanical Science Laboratory. Imagine my surprise when I caught the AP encroaching on my territory:
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) - The New York Mets got a taste of new pitching coach Rick Peterson on Tuesday, complete with black Spandex, shimmering silver balls and high-speed photography.That’s incredibly lame, yes, but accordingly still very much within my purview. The good news is that they didn’t also steal my line linking sockets with Sprockets. The bad news, as you might have guessed, is that I just used it.
What can you do when the straight man starts dropping punchlines? Stop joking around for a little while, I suppose, so that's what I did. As always, any legitimate questions I had about the Mets were answered within hours by our capable bloggers. Avkash at the raindrops provided this enlightening description of the evaluation process, while Damien of Shea Daily posted a picture of phenom Scott Kazmir looking as happy as a little girl in his Spandex testing uniform. After reading more about the process, it is with chagrin that I admit the apparent lack of insidious nanotech. It seems we may have really struck gold when we hired Peterson. I'm officially on the Biomechanical bandwagon, despite my lingering fears that the sensors fastened to Kazmir's shoulders in the above photograph bear a curious resemblance to the tracking ball inside my mouse. (My hope would be better fed by sophisticated technology whose workings lie beyond my grasp.)
At any rate, it's nice to see that our young pitchers are in good hands, as we're going to need them. I've put it off as long as possible, but I'm resigned to finally offering you my look at how the Mets pitching staff ranks among the others in our division. (For my takes on the infield and outfield, see here and here.)
Ace *
1) FLA: Josh Beckett
2) ATL: Russ Ortiz
3) PHI: Kevin Millwood
4) MON: Livan Hernandez
5) NYM: Tom Michael Glavine
* In Glavine’s case, this means "first starter to pitch", not "best pitcher in rotation".
I will probably take a lot of heat for naming Beckett number one, if by heat you take my meaning to be the impassive silence of an empty inbox. Rest assured that I'm not elevating him on his inspiring performance in the World Series but on his inspiring performance throughout the regular season. His numbers were stellar, and while I realize he still has his baby fat on him, he was a phenom for a reason. I don't expect him to be the best pitcher in the majors, but I do expect him to live up to that billing.
Ortiz is not a particularly interesting fellow, but he is a consistently good pitcher who deserves the mantle of staff ace. While he did not pitch very well against the Mets in 2003, he did manage to humiliate us anyhow by out-hitting our prospects. To wit:
Russ Ortiz (a pitcher) 70 AB / .257 AVG / 2 HR / 10 RBI / .703 OPS
Marco Scutaro (not a pitcher) 75 AB/ .213 AVG / 2 HR / 6 RBI / .680 OPS
Millwood just signed a one year deal worth eleven million dollars (I'm typing it out because $11M does not quite convey what an enormous overpayment this is). By comparison, with the aid of Dugout Dollars, let's look at some of the other pitchers who have signed contracts this winter. Curt Schilling is making $12M next season. Roy Halladay will be making $6M in 2004, and signed a deal with an average annual value of $10.5M. To all of you who are laughing at Scott Boras because he claimed he had a $15M per year offer on the table for his client, think again; the only way to make an eleven million dollar settlement look reasonable is by comparing it to something completely insane. And that appears to be just what he did.
Livan Hernandez is a mostly average yet completely insane pitcher who had a great season last year. Rob Neyer thinks that changing his arm angle was the secret to his success. Of course, after he discovered it, he perfected it against the Amazins:
Previously when Hernandez pitched, his different pitches looked different before he threw them. "He was higher on his curveball than he was on his slider," [Expos pitching coach Randy] St. Claire says, "and he was lower on his two-seamer than on his four-seamer."Glad we could be of service. Will he keep it up? I have no idea, but I'm skeptical.
In Hernandez's next start, at Shea Stadium on July 2, Hernandez threw every pitch from the same spot, low three-quarters, and he's remained in that spot in every game since.
Skeptical does not begin to plumb the depths of my bitterness about having to root for Glavine. But I've spoken badly of Tom in the past and will continue to do so in the future, so for a change I thought I'd try to be optimistic in this regard. ESPN's outlook reminds us that he suffered through bone spurs, blisters, and a generally miserable supporting cast. It is possible that he will turn things around and post a decent season if healthy and backed by an improved defense and lineup. It is also possible that I will see Jim Duquette on a subway platform, and after picking up the wallet he dropped, fire it to him with such incredible velocity through the closing doors of the subway car that he will be compelled to offer me a spring training invite and a chance to replace Glavine in the rotation. However, I think the best that we can reasonably hope for is that he continues to confine his worst starts to those against our biggest rivals - his former team.
2nd Starter
1) PHI: Randy Wolf
2) ATL: Mike Hampton
3) FLA: Brad Penny
4) NYM: Al Leiter
5) MON: Tony Armas, Jr.
Randy Wolf is going to be better than Kevin Millwood this year. He's a great young pitcher coming into his prime, and I plan to follow him closely. Don't be put off by his 4+ ERA in 2003; his homers and walks allowed were up a bit, and the Phillies' bullpen was miserable. Not a good combination. I expect him to at least return to his fabulous 2001-2 numbers, and probably better them.
I should despise Mike Hampton. He was our ace, and he left us to go to Colorado. Now he pitches (successfully) for the hated Braves. Like Ortiz, he also humiliated our prospects:
Mike Hampton (pitcher) 60 AB / .183 AVG / 2 HR / 8 RBI / .595 OPS
Jorge Velandia (not a pitcher) 58 AB/ .190 AVG / 0 HR / 8 RBI / .580 OPS
All the preconditions are there. Still, I can't find it in me to root against him. He was the laughingstock of baseball for long enough that I lost my ire. He should pitch pretty well again this year. Thankfully, it's downhill from here for the Braves.
I'm not too high on Brad Penny, but I think he's got a pretty good chance of fulfilling his promise this year. The pressure's off, as Florida has an ace in Beckett to carry the team, they've already won the big one, Dontrelle Willis has the spotlight, so all that's left is for Penny to come into his own. I think he might. Leiter is my favorite player on the Mets and will have my vote in 2004 or whenever he decides to run for office. I was dismayed by his early struggles last year, and invigorated by his success down the stretch. He's got another good season left in the tank, but even if he doesn't it'll take a scandal of monumental proportions to earn my derision. Armas got off to a great start, then got injured and had to pull a Derek Bell-esque Operation: Shutdown. The Expos saw a lot of that sort of thing last season, and if their guys remain healthy and their success wasn't fluky, they could be better than most people think.
3rd Starter
1) PHI: Vicente Padilla
2) MON: Zach Day
3) NYM: Steve Trachsel
4) FLA: Carl Pavano
5) ATL: Horacio Ramirez
Vicente Padilla is going to be better than Kevin Millwood this year. Or at the very least, a better value: he just signed a one year deal worth $2.6M. He’s also coming into his prime (you’ve got to hate the Phillies’ staff) and is a pretty damn fine pitcher. Zach Day is another of those promising Expos starters who got injured last season and couldn’t recover. In his case, he ran into Wil Cordero and busted up his shoulder:
In his first eight starts last year, the 25-year-old was 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA. Thereafter, he went 5-7 with a 5.13 ERA.Day should be a fine surprise for the remaining two Expos fans sitting in that ghastly cavern up in Montreal.
But all season, no one hit him harder than Wil Cordero. A teammate, Cordero didn't do damage with his bat but with his solid 6-foot-2, 190-pound body, colliding with Day on a play at first during the nightcap of a May 28 doubleheader in Miami.
Trachsel's strikeouts have fallen off quite a bit, and he still gives up too many homers, but I've come to respect his quiet, methodical competence. I've often heard his pitching style described as deliberate, which is fine for everyday use and Post columnists, but I figure I'll be referring to him often enough that I should have a few more words that mean "mind-numbingly slow" in reserve. Some of my favorites, courtesy Roget's Really Old Thesaurus, in a brief dialogue between Fran Healy and Keith Hernandez:
Healy: Something goofy! Boy does my rear ache. Trachsel's meticulosis isn't helping...
Hernandez: Something critical! Yeah, he sure is the most cunctative --
Healy: Watch your mouth!
Hernandez: It just means "tending to hesitate or delay"!
Healy: Oh! Ok! Strike one on the outside corner.
(For the definition of 'mailing it in', please see the above. I'm sorry, but I've got two more rotation spots and the bullpen to go.)
Pavano is a mediocre pitcher who wouldn't merit mention except that his girlfriend is Alyssa Milano. I'm expecting ESPN's Hot Stove Heaters to write a detailed article any day now titled "Ace of Lace" in which Pavano and our own Mr. Erickson-Guerrero are interviewed about how tough is to focus on the game with girlfriends like theirs to come home to. ("Losing is still tough, real tough," said Erickson unconvincingly.)
Horacio Ramirez stinks. Hallelujah. The only reason he's got a rotation spot this high is that the Braves have absolutely nobody else. I'd rejoice over it, except the Mets are in the same unenviable position.
4th Starter
1) FLA: Dontrelle Willis
2) NYM: Jae Seo
3) MON: Tomo Ohka
4) ATL: John Thomson
5) PHI: Eric Milton
The D-train (ugh) is a flashy, charismatic kid. You don’t need me to tell you that. What you maybe didn’t hear about is this disturbing little snippet I found in his ESPN outlook:
[Willis] remains a low-cost option in the middle of the Marlins' rotation, though long term some club insiders wonder whether he wouldn't be more valuable in a short-relief role.Relievers are a dime a dozen (or $3M a year for one, if you're the Yankees! Oh snap!) so I don't see why they'd want to downgrade him like that. I enjoy watching him, like everyone else in the world, and so hope he stays a starter. If Jae Seo isn't troubled by any nagging, strange ailments this year, I think he'll be an excellent fourth starter. I look forward to his success and increasing popularity as it will afford me more opportunities to snidely correct mispronunciations of his awesome name. Ohka pitched better two seasons ago, and I'm not sure why he was worse last year. It wasn't Puerto Rico, though; he actually pitched worse in Montreal. Thomson is not as bad as his numbers indicate; obviously pitching in Colorado and to a lesser extent Texas will do bad things to your ERA. Apparently, they're not so bad for your ego:
"If I can come in here and just kind of be myself like I was at the second half last year, then I think our pitching staff is going to be as good as it was last year," Thomson said. "Maybe you won't see the names of last year, but you're going to see the results that you saw last year."He's not great, but he might not be completely insane. Leo Mazzone may not tape mouse tracking balls to Thomson's shoulders and then photograph him, but I'm sure the Braves' pitching coach has something up his sleeve.
Milton is not very good, has never been very good, and is coming off a debilitating injury. He's not the one who makes the Phillies rotation deeper than his last incision; that guy would be...
5th Starter
1) PHI: Brett Myers
2) FLA: Darren Oliver/ A.J. Burnett
3) MON: Claudio Vargas
4) ATL: Braves Combo
5) NYM: Mets Combo
Brett Myers, soon to be the best fifth starter in baseball. He's twenty-three, and he's going to get a lot better. A. J. Burnett has to be pissed that the injury probably caused in part by the Marlins overusing him cost him a spot on the team that won the World Series. How's that for motivation? Sadly, I don't think they're getting back this year, but he should be fun to watch until he hurries himself too much, sneezes, then rapidly disassembles before our eyes. Vargas is a fifth starter on the Expos, and that's all you need to know. The Braves have a number of unsavory options, including a guy named Bubba and a fellow named Jung (pronounced "Young") Bong. If Bubba makes the team, he'll be an easy target, but I'm sorry to announce that Grant Roberts' indiscretion last season precludes any Jung Bong humor.
You were probably expecting a joke about the Mets' fifth starter options. That would not just be beating a dead horse. It would be beating a dead horse, rearranging it at the molecular level so that it becomes in fundamental ways human, signing it to a deal to pitch 300 innings a year for the Marlins, misdiagnosing the inevitable career-threatening shoulder ailment (poor Robb Nen) so that it becomes washed up, hiring Jerry Crasnick to make jokes only he finds funny about how it used to be a real workhorse, but is in fact now just a dead horse (and one that deserves to be beaten)...
...and then negotiating it a minor league contract with the Mets.
(It's a joke that does not want to be a joke -- how postmodern!)
But seriously, there's nothing more to say. I just hope it's one of the kids.
And worth a brief mention:
Closer/Bullpen
1) PHI: Wagner, Cormier,
2) ATL: Smoltz and Co.
3) FLA: Benitez, Fox, Tejera
4) Mon: Biddle, Ayala, Eischen
5) NYM: Looper and the Old Guard
The Phillies have the best bullpen in the division, which is perhaps the most important improvement a team has made this offseason. Smoltz is wasted as a closer, but I'm glad the Braves don't seem to think so. I predict Benitez will thrive in the zero-pressure environment in Florida, where he will be free to wear as many absurd see-through shirts as he wishes. The Expos don't have many good options, but that makes them a damn sight better than our bullpen, which has none. I'm not sold on Looper, but I suppose we had to fill the closer slot with somebody. Who else do we have? Stanton, Franco, some of Strickland's jewelry he left lying around before he shut himself down. Once again, I hope some young guys get a chance to show their stuff instead of Ricky Botallico and whatever Baldwin brother we signed along with him.
So where does this mammoth animal of a pitching preview leave us?
On gut feeling alone, I thought the division would shape up like this:
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Mets
Expos
After taking a slightly more informed look and uselessly and relatively ranking our positional players and pitchers, I've come up with my adjusted gut feeling:
Phillies: 16 (IF) + 9 (OF) + 12 (P) = 37
Braves: 18 (IF) + 4 (OF) + 18 (P) = 40
Mets: 12 (IF) + 9 (OF) + 19 (P) = 40
Expos: 11 (IF) + 11 (OF) + 20 (P) = 42
Marlins: 18 (IF) + 12 (OF) + 14 (P) = 44
The acronym for which, by the way, is AGF, pronounced like the sound any rational baseball fan would make upon reading such hogwash.
And yet, anything can happen. In some hypothetical moment in space and time, the Mets are contenders. It’s not the only reason I’m watching, but it’s one of them.
Having said that, if you do happen to see Duquette drop his wallet getting onto the subway, well, do us all a favor and put some damn zip on it.
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